Since their introduction, the use of antidepressant drugs in the UK has been increasing. This rise seems to remain unaffected by what happens in the world. Financial crashes, wars and global pandemics don’t seem to do much to deflect it from its course, up or down. It seems odd that a drug meant to assuage “mental strife” sees hardly a fluctuation in the face of global events that cause just that.
Looking at the raw prescription numbers released by NHS England1, it can be seen that there is a steady 3-7% increase in quantities2 prescribed, year-on-year since 2008 3 (as far back as the numbers go). What is it about antidepressant drugs that their demand remains so unresponsive to world events? It just keeps going up. But even if we ignore the ups-and-downs of history, logic would suggest that their use would decline over time as users cease to need them and saturation levels are reached. But then again, what are saturation levels? 20%? 30%? Or will Big Pharma only rest when 100% of the population is on antidepressants? For the record: in 2017, 17% of the UK population “received or had dispensed” antidepressants.4
But back to the numbers: 3-7%, year-on-year, 14 years running. How to explain that?
Population growth? Well, no, in the UK that number is never more than 1% a year.5 An aging population then? Likewise, it progresses at under 0.3% a year6 (age group percentage for 65+).
No, what we are told instead is that this steady rise is due to “awareness.” Not exactly a hard metric, but let’s run with it. We are told there is ever more awareness about mental health, and because of this, a 3-7% year-on-year rise can be expected, financial crashes, wars, and pandemics notwithstanding.
Have you met anyone who has not heard of antidepressants and is unaware of their purported purpose? After 14 years, are we expected to believe that there is still a large enough stock of people living under a rock, unaware of the “benefits” of mind-altering antidepressants? Will they make the same argument twenty years from now? Are they serious?
What’s more, if we look at the numbers relating to antidepressants from the NHS report Medicines Used in Mental Health – England – 2015/16 to 2020/21,7 we find that the prescription quantities (orange) are typically increasing year-on-year more quickly than new patients are found to take them (in yellow). In other words, people are taking more and more antidepressants not less; something one would associate with addiction, not medicine.
Ignoring everything but the numbers, one thing is certainly clear: any business in the world would smack their lips at 3-7% non-cyclical, business-cycle-proof demand growth.
Oh, but wait, it is a business.
1 https://opendata.nhsbsa.net/dataset/prescription-cost-analysis-pca-monthly-data
2 Note in the PCA data: The volume of drug supplied measured in units depending on the formulation of the product i.e. one tablet, capsule, ml, g, aerosol, pack (for special container products) etc. Quantities cannot be added together across preparations because of different strengths and formulations.
3 The 2008 data starts on February. For completeness the quantities from January 2009 are added in order to represent a full year. It is thus recognized that the 2008 numbers shown are only representative number.
4 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prescribed-medicines-review-report/prescribed-medicines-review-summary
5 https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-kingdom-population#:~:text=The%20population%20growth%20rate%20in%20the%20UK%20is,is%20net%20migration%2C%20which%20was%20626%2C000%20in%202019.
6 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/august2019
7 https://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/statistical-collections/medicines-used-mental-health-england/medicines-used-mental-health-england-201516-202021
